Feeling unlucky

01/09/2019 09:25:32
Thanks again to Grahame and the team at Salcombe for sorting out the draw and I do feel it is the fairest system
Yet my third year on the waiting list 
2018 didn't get in
2019 got 3 1/2 weeks notice and thanks to Johnny agreeing to crew at short notice and Taxi for letting me have a room and Grahame Eeles for repairing a carbon mast at record speed I got there by there by the skin of my teeth if very underprepared 
2020 31st on waiting list oh well
Anyone else manage the trio?
Can I urge any who got in but find they are unable to attend to notify at the first opportunity so others get time to sort their entry

01/09/2019 12:57:28
Derik Palmer
I wonder if there shouldn't be some sort of weighting system where those who didn't get in one year have an increased chance of selection for the next?

And I don't know if there are many who are allocated places but fail to take them up without notifying; but if there are there could also be some sort of penalty system to make it harder for them to be selected the following year. I don't have any suggestions as to how all this would work - and am well aware that it would be someone other than myself who would have to operate and enforce it - but its just a suggestion for further thought and discussion.

As an afterthought, perhaps we should also celebrate having such a marvellous annual event that we have to limit numbers in an age where so many classes struggle to fill places even at national events!

02/09/2019 17:03:19
Piers, Richard Bramley is in the same position as you, and is bearing up well considering. When commiserating with the rest of us from Shoreham SC that didn't make the cut he sagely said 'No doubt you are experiencing the roller coaster of emotions that I have come to accept as part of the entry process. My advice is to accept that you may well not get a place and then if it does come it is a pleasant suprise'. Wise advice from someone that knows.
I'd like to reiterate your thanks to Graham and all at Salcombe, as I too believe it is the fairest way...  and am looking forward to the 10 month rollercoaster ride!

02/09/2019 17:49:38
Chris Martin
Me too. And like you, its a hat-trick!

History suggests that all 7 who missed out last year will get in. If I don't - or rather don't by the time we need to commit ourselves to something - its an opportunity to do something else.

There's plenty out there to do - including the Tenby champs :)

02/09/2019 21:15:21
John Meadowcroft
Hard luck to all those on the list.  I know how it feels.  As the person who was bottom of the waiting list last year (top of this list this year), had I kept my diary free I would actually have been sailing in Salcombe.

Optimistically I had expected that this might happen but life took over and meetings were arranged and so when I got “the call” a week before the event that places were opening up, it was alas, too late.

Salcombe week is fun, but in my view not the be all and end all.  We went to Looe instead and had a great week.

Good luck to all those on the list.  It truly can happen, but you need to keep your diary free!  

03/09/2019 17:46:43
Ben Jones 3806
I echo Chris and Med's comments. Since changing the Nationals race format, we know have a week that provides not only first class racing but the chance to spend time with the family, see the venue and socialise (with time to recover)  in a similar way to the Salcombe format.
With Tenby SC offering (probably) the finest sailing venue in the country, a vast array of accommodation, excellent weather and Fellinfoel Double Dragon, the 2020 Nationals will suit all levels of sailor and their family and friends.
As Chris mentions, Tenby Regatta and Round Caldey Race, usually at the end of June, is also a great opportunity to check out the waters and venue. With no current limit on numbers, it's a great alternative to for those missing out on Salcombe.
There is a team prize so anyone interested in joining a Merlin Team, please let me know. 

04/09/2019 22:29:01
We are also wait list regulars! 4 years ago we did get in from 16th on the wait list - we had decided we would go regardless of getting in or not so had time booked off and a place to stay etc.
Last year we were about 42nd on the wait list, and when we had a message 4 days before to say there was space it was far too late as we can't just drop everything at the last minute.
This year we are 6th on the wait list and have already booked the time off work and a place to stay! Sadly its very hard to get time of work in August so I doubt we will ever make it to the Nationals.
We really enjoy all the Merlin events we can get to and I think the ballot system for Salcombe is fair - other sports I have done that are oversubscribed use the same system - the only slight difference is if you don't get in one year you are guaranteed a place the next year so you never miss more that one year in a row. 

05/09/2019 12:05:00
Blaise Pascal
If you get the waiting list 3 years in a row then that it particularly unlucky ! Based on 160 entries with 120 successful entries the probability of missing 3 times in a row is something like 1.6% .......... so statically very very unlucky.
Of course my maths could be wrong 

05/09/2019 18:35:02
Chris Martin
Equally I think it should be mentioned that Antonia Wright needs to start buying lottery tickets - first out of the hat two years running!!
I nearly switched off thinking I was watching last years draw!! 
Stats wise this is only the second draw year. The year before was more to do with Russian Roulette over an overwhelmed internet server.

06/09/2019 11:16:59
Blaise Pascal
Your chances of being wait listed at the beginning of the sequence for 4 consecutive years is down to 0.4%.........so you perennial wait listers may be ok..........
but of course if you have already been wait listed 3 times then you are back to 25% for the new draw  
The numbers say that with 160 entries between 0 and 1 person may be wait listed for a  4th consecutive year 

06/09/2019 18:02:29
Not sure your mafs has taken into account 19 boats pre qualify 

09/09/2019 08:54:17
Blaise Pascal
Good point......
So 2.2% chance of being wait listed 3 times - 3 people
and 0.6% chance of being waited listed 4 times - 1 person

09/09/2019 11:18:19
Blaise Pascal
Perhaps a rule SYC rule amendment would be appropriate........
If you are wait listed on 2 subsequent years then your entry for the 3rd year (must be the following year)  becomes  pre-qualify entry ?


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